Here is a theory about our sluggish economic recovery:
The old time-frames for bust-to-boom are no longer operative templates.
Recessions used to take a long time to play out, because industries didn’t have the moment-to-moment vertical integration we see now in supply chains.
Inventories that sat idle were not only signs of wasted resources, they were also a buffer that slowed the signals of economic activity.
This is the first downturn of a hyper-connected market. We’re shedding jobs like we never have, because small-to-medium businesses now have access to the relevant data that informs layoffs faster. Those looking at the slope are seeing the same data as before, but compressed in time.
The recovery will not be quite as compressed, because there will be re-organization and slower buildup. Much like how gas prices rocket up, and float down.
The significance of this is that I wrote it nearly three years ago, on Cringely’s blog. Seems like ages ago. [Read more...]